Electricity consumption prediction using artificial intelligence

Tomaž Čegovnik (), Andrej Dobrovoljc (), Janez Povh (), Matic Rogar () and Pavel Tomšič ()
Additional contact information
Tomaž Čegovnik: 3Tav d.o.o.
Andrej Dobrovoljc: Razvojni center Novo mesto
Janez Povh: Razvojni center Novo mesto, Slovenija Univerza v Ljubljani
Matic Rogar: Univerza v Ljubljani
Pavel Tomšič: Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za strojništvo

Central European Journal of Operations Research, 2023, vol. 31, issue 3, No 9, 833-851

Abstract: Abstract The measurement of electricity consumption at 15-minute granularity, including for households, is increasingly mandated in the EU and this also allows, once sufficient data have been collected, the prediction of future consumption at the same time intervals. In this paper, we present preliminary results of the industry project that aims to build AI models for next-day electricity consumption at 15-minute granularity. We have identified the main influencing factors, developed scripts and databases to collect data about these features and about the past electricity consumption at 15-minute granularity for each measuring point, and, finally, developed three AI models to predict the future electricity consumption for each 15-minute interval and each measurement point. We provide descriptive analyses for all measuring points that were in the database in April 2022 and show that for computing the prediction of accumulated electricity consumption at 15-minute granularity, it is much more accurate (in terms of mean absolute percentage error – MAPE) to compute the prediction for each measuring point and accumulate these predictions. An evaluation of the models on the list of the 10 outstanding measuring points (according to the data provider) shows that our predictions achieve very good MAPE. Additionally, we have provided an evaluation of possible ways of parallelization within R, and laid out results of a computational study using parallel, doParallel, and foreach R libraries.

Keywords: Electricity demand; Load forecasting; Neural network; Random forest; Accuracy; Parallelization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10100-023-00844-6

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