Modeling dynamics of opinion formation in small groups: a framework capturing individual opinion adjustments

Jaroslav Horáček ()
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Jaroslav Horáček: Charles University

Central European Journal of Operations Research, 2025, vol. 33, issue 3, No 6, 729-756

Abstract: Abstract The manuscript extends previous research on experimentally supported agent-based models of opinion formation in groups. This study introduces the Opinion Shift Map, a novel tool for visualizing and quantifying individual responses to an advisor’s opinion based on the differences in both opinion and confidence. The goal is to integrate this tool into an agent-based model to better understand opinion dynamics in small groups. Through computer simulations, the influence of initial opinion and confidence distributions on opinion evolution is examined. Additionally, conditions under which a minority can persuade the majority, the role of confidence shifts, the impact of opinion update rates, and the influence of perceived distances between opinions and confidences are investigated. The findings highlight key factors shaping group consensus and offer insights into real-world opinion dynamics. Finally, the study evaluates the model’s strengths and limitations and suggests directions for future research.

Keywords: Opinion formation; Opinion shift; Confidence shift; Agent-based modeling; Computer simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10100-025-00982-z

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