The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices

Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist (), Peter Thejll, Bo Christiansen, Andrea Seim, Claudia Hartl and Jan Esper
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Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist: Stockholm University
Peter Thejll: Danish Meteorological Institute
Bo Christiansen: Danish Meteorological Institute
Andrea Seim: Albert Ludwig University of Freiburg
Claudia Hartl: Johannes Gutenberg University
Jan Esper: Johannes Gutenberg University

Cliometrica, 2022, vol. 16, issue 1, No 2, 29-77

Abstract: Abstract Grain was the most important food source in early modern Europe (c. 1500–1800), and its price influenced the entire economy. The extent to which climate variability determined grain price variations remains contested, and claims of solar cycle influences on prices are disputed. We thoroughly reassess these questions, within a framework of comprehensive statistical analysis, by employing an unprecedentedly large grain price data set together with state-of-the-art palaeoclimate reconstructions and long meteorological series. A highly significant negative grain price–temperature relationship (i.e. colder = high prices and vice versa) is found across Europe. This association increases at larger spatial and temporal scales and reaches a correlation of $$-\,0.41$$ - 0.41 considering the European grain price average and previous year June–August temperatures at annual resolution, and of $$-\,0.63$$ - 0.63 at decadal timescales. This strong relationship is of episodic rather than periodic (cyclic) nature. Only weak and spatially inconsistent signals of hydroclimate (precipitation and drought), and no meaningful association with solar variations, are detected in the grain prices. The significant and persistent temperature effects on grain prices imply that this now rapidly changing climate element has been a more important factor in European economic history, even in southern Europe, than commonly acknowledged.

Keywords: Grain prices; Harvest yields; Temperature variability; Drought variability; Solar variability; Early modern period; Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C00 N13 N53 O11 Q21 Q50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11698-021-00224-7

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