The Celestial Empire: solar eclipses, political legitimacy, and economic performance in historical China

Chengjiu Sun and Hongfei Li ()
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Chengjiu Sun: Nankai University
Hongfei Li: PipeChina Institute of Science and Technology

Cliometrica, 2024, vol. 18, issue 2, No 5, 453-491

Abstract: Abstract We exploit a unique historical experiment to study how changes in political legitimacy affect economic performance. In historical China, solar eclipses were interpreted as Heaven's wrath incurred by wrongdoings of the ruling class, signaling a decline in the incumbent's legitimacy. Using an original dataset covering over 2000 years, we document that when total solar eclipses occurred, climate shocks had a greater negative impact on economic performance. The key mechanism appears to be that total eclipses significantly intensified the effect of climate shocks on civil conflict. Our findings thus highlight the importance of political legitimacy during periods of economic downturn.

Keywords: Political legitimacy; Solar eclipse; Economic performance; Climate shocks; Civil conflict (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N15 P48 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11698-023-00270-3

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