Longevity risk and economic growth in sub-populations: evidence from Italy

Giuseppina Bozzo, Susanna Levantesi () and Massimiliano Menzietti ()
Additional contact information
Giuseppina Bozzo: Sapienza University of Rome
Susanna Levantesi: Sapienza University of Rome

Decisions in Economics and Finance, 2021, vol. 44, issue 1, No 7, 115 pages

Abstract: Abstract Forecasting mortality is still a big challenge for Governments that are interested in reliable projections for defining their economic policy at local and national level. The accuracy of mortality forecasting is considered an important issue for longevity risk management. In the literature, many authors have analyzed the long-run relationship between mortality evolution and socioeconomic variables, such as economic growth, unemployment rate or educational level. This paper investigates the existence of a link between mortality and real gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC) over time in the Italian regions. Empirical evidence shows the presence of a relationship between mortality and the level of real GDPPC (and not its trend). Therefore, we propose a multi-population model including the level of real GDPPC and we compare it with the Boonen–Li model (Boonen and Li in Demography 54:1921–1946, 2017). The validity of the model is tested in the out-of-sample forecasting experiment.

Keywords: Longevity risk; Mortality forecasting; Multi-population mortality models; Boonen–Li model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10203-020-00275-x Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:decfin:v:44:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10203-020-00275-x

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ry/journal/10203/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s10203-020-00275-x

Access Statistics for this article

Decisions in Economics and Finance is currently edited by Paolo Ghirardato

More articles in Decisions in Economics and Finance from Springer, Associazione per la Matematica
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().