Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections

Fanny Janssen (), Leo Wissen () and Anton Kunst ()

Demography, 2013, vol. 50, issue 4, 1362 pages

Abstract: We present a new mortality projection methodology that distinguishes smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality and takes into account mortality trends of the opposite sex and in other countries. We evaluate to what extent future projections of life expectancy at birth (e 0 ) for the Netherlands up to 2040 are affected by the application of these components. All-cause mortality and non-smoking-related mortality for the years 1970–2006 are projected by the Lee-Carter and Li-Lee methodologies. Smoking-related mortality is projected according to assumptions on future smoking-attributable mortality. Projecting all-cause mortality in the Netherlands, using the Lee-Carter model, leads to high gains in e 0 (4.1 for males; 4.4 for females) and divergence between the sexes. Coherent projections, which include the mortality experience of the other 21 sex- and country-specific populations, result in much higher gains for males (6.4) and females (5.7), and convergence. The separate projection of smoking and non-smoking-related mortality produces a steady increase in e 0 for males (4.8) and a nonlinear trend for females, with lower gains in e 0 in the short run, resulting in temporary sex convergence. The latter effect is also found in coherent projections. Our methodology provides more robust projections, especially thanks to the distinction between smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality. Copyright Population Association of America 2013

Keywords: Life expectancy; Projection; Smoking; Europe; Li-Lee methodology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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DOI: 10.1007/s13524-012-0185-x

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