Economics at your fingertips  

A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850

Miikka Voutilainen (), Jouni Helske and Harri Högmander
Additional contact information
Miikka Voutilainen: University of Jyvaskyla
Jouni Helske: University of Jyvaskyla
Harri Högmander: University of Jyvaskyla

Demography, 2020, vol. 57, issue 3, No 15, 1192 pages

Abstract: Abstract This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finland’s population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual population series of such length available.

Keywords: Population history; Population growth; Early modern era; Bayesian estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

DOI: 10.1007/s13524-020-00889-1

Access Statistics for this article

Demography is currently edited by John D. Iceland, Stephen A. Matthews and Jenny Van Hook

More articles in Demography from Springer, Population Association of America (PAA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().

Page updated 2020-08-29
Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:57:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s13524-020-00889-1