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Bitcoin and market-(in)efficiency: a systematic time series approach

Nils Bundi () and Marc Wildi ()
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Nils Bundi: Stevens Institute of Technology
Marc Wildi: Zurich University of Applied Sciences

Digital Finance, 2019, vol. 1, issue 1, 47-65

Abstract: Abstract Recently, cryptocurrencies have received substantial attention by investors given their innovative features, simplicity and transparency. We here analyze the increasingly popular Bitcoin and verify pertinence of the efficient market hypothesis. Recent research suggests that Bitcoin markets, while inefficient in their early days, transitioned into efficient markets recently. We challenge this claim by proposing simple trading strategies based on moving average filters, on classic time series models as well as on non-linear neural nets. Our findings suggest that trading performances of our designs are significantly positive; moreover, linear and non-linear approaches perform similarly except at singular time periods of the Bitcoin; finally, our results suggest that markets are becoming less rather than more efficient towards the sample end of the data.

Keywords: Bitcoin; Cryptocurrencies; Efficient market hypothesis; Time series analysis; Moving average filters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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