On cointegration and cryptocurrency dynamics

Georg Keilbar and Yanfen Zhang
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Yanfen Zhang: Humboldt-University of Berlin

Digital Finance, 2021, vol. 3, issue 1, No 1, 23 pages

Abstract: Abstract This paper aims to model the joint dynamics of cryptocurrencies in a nonstationary setting. In particular, we analyze the role of cointegration relationships within a large system of cryptocurrencies in a vector error correction model (VECM) framework. To enable analysis in a dynamic setting, we propose the COINtensity VECM, a nonlinear VECM specification accounting for a varying systemwide cointegration exposure. Our results show that cryptocurrencies are indeed cointegrated with a cointegration rank of four. We also find that all currencies are affected by these long term equilibrium relations. The nonlinearity in the error adjustment turned out to be stronger during the height of the cryptocurrency bubble. A simple statistical arbitrage trading strategy is proposed showing a great in-sample performance, whereas an out-of-sample analysis gives reason to treat the strategy with caution.

Keywords: Cointegration; VECM; Nonstationarity; Cryptocurrencies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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DOI: 10.1007/s42521-021-00027-5

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