Property bubble in Hong Kong: A predicted decade-long slump (2016–2025)

Peter Richmond () and Bertrand M. Roehner ()
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Peter Richmond: Trinity College
Bertrand M. Roehner: University Pierre and Marie Curie

Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, 2017, vol. 14, issue 1, No 4, 79-99

Abstract: Abstract Between 2003 and 2015 the prices of apartments in Hong Kong (adjusted for inflation) were multiplied by a factor of 3.8. This is more than in the United States prior to the so-called subprime crisis of 2007. The analysis of this speculative episode confirms the mechanism and regularities already highlighted by the present authors in similar episodes that occurred previously in other countries. Based on these regularities, it is possible to predict the price trajectory over the time interval 2016–2025. It suggests that, unless appropriate relief is provided by the mainland, Hong Kong will experience a decade-long slump. This bubble took considerable proportions largely because the currency board system through which Hong Kong interest rates are modeled on US rates made it impossible to “cool the market”. In fact, it resulted in loans with negative real interest rates.

Keywords: Real estate prices; speculative bubble; Hong Kong; Currency board; Price multiplier effect; Prediction; D400 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s40844-017-0072-7

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