Does Temperature Variability Affect Global Harvest Production?

William Ginn ()
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William Ginn: Sr. Economist

Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 2026, vol. 10, issue 1, No 1, 29 pages

Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates the effects of annual temperature-related weather shocks on global harvest production–specifically rice, maize, soybeans, and wheat, which are pivotal for global sustenance. We employ a global VAR–local projections (VAR-LP) framework over the period 1961–2022, with temperature shocks constructed as innovations in annual surface temperature anomalies obtained via a Kalman filter. The empirical results indicate that a one standard deviation temperature shock leads to an immediate decline in harvest production of approximately 0.73%, along with reduced output growth and increased harvest inflation. Harvest production exhibits a heavy right tail, with the top five producers accounting for 62% of global output, highlighting the disproportionate concentration of climate risk in a small number of key countries. This concentration amplifies the vulnerability of major staple crops to rising temperatures and the potential global repercussions of localized temperature shocks.

Keywords: Food production; Weather; Global business cycle; Vector autoregression; Local projections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1007/s41885-025-00181-9

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