Impact of Climate Change, Weather Extremes, and Price Risk on Global Food Supply
Kindie Tesfaye and
Joachim von Braun
Additional contact information
Tesfamicheal Wossen: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA)
Kindie Tesfaye: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT)
Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 2017, vol. 1, issue 1, 55-75
Abstract We analyze the determinants of global crop production for maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans over the period 1961–2013. Using seasonal production data and price change and price volatility information at country level, as well as future climate data from 32 global circulation models, we project that climate change could reduce global crop production by 9% in the 2030s and by 23% in the 2050s. Climate change leads to 1–3% higher annual fluctuations of global crop production over the next four decades. We find strong, positive and statistically significant supply response to changing prices for all four crops. However, output price volatility, which signals risk to producers, reduces the supply of these key global agricultural staple crops—especially for wheat and maize. We find that climate change has significant adverse effects on production of the world’s key staple crops. Especially, weather extremes— in terms of shocks in both temperature and precipitation— during crop growing months have detrimental impacts on the production of the abovementioned food crops. Weather extremes also exacerbate the year-to-year fluctuations of food availability, and thus may further increase price volatility with its adverse impacts on production and poor consumers. Combating climate change using both mitigation and adaptation technologies is therefore crucial for global production and hence food security.
Keywords: Food supply; Climate change; Weather extremes; Price volatility; Staple crops; Global; Q11; Q15; Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41885-017-0005-2 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ediscc:v:1:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s41885-017-0005-2
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.springer ... mental/journal/41885
Access Statistics for this article
Economics of Disasters and Climate Change is currently edited by Ilan Noy and Shunsuke Managi
More articles in Economics of Disasters and Climate Change from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().