Before a Fall: Impacts of Earthquake Regulation on Commercial Buildings

Levente Timar, Arthur Grimes and Richard Fabling

Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 2018, vol. 2, issue 1, No 5, 73-90

Abstract: Abstract We test whether the major earthquakes in Christchurch (Canterbury, New Zealand) affected prices of earthquake-prone commercial buildings in Wellington, a city that was directly unaffected by the disaster. Specifically, we test whether official declaration of a Wellington building as earthquake-prone (with a requirement for remediation to minimum earthquake code standards) had an effect on sale price relative to similarly earthquake-prone (but yet-to-be-declared) buildings. We find that the price discount accompanying an earthquake-prone declaration in the CBD averages 45% whereas there is no observable discount on buildings yet-to-be-declared as earthquake-prone. Sale prices of currently-declared earthquake-prone commercial buildings in the suburbs also fell, but not as markedly. The sale probability of officially declared earthquake-prone buildings in Wellington rose markedly after the Christchurch earthquakes unlike the sale probability of yet-to-be-declared earthquake-prone buildings which fell slightly, reflecting buyer caution about such buildings. This pattern is indicative of forced sale of buildings following an official earthquake-prone declaration.

Keywords: Earthquake-prone buildings; Commercial property; Property prices; Sales probability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q54 R33 R38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s41885-017-0019-9

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