When the Waters Rise: Examining Household-Level Exposure to Inland Flood Risk and Poverty in Grenada

Paul Ervin (), Lyliana Gayoso (), Eliana Rubiano-Matulevich () and Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza ()
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Paul Ervin: Center for Economic and Human Development (CEDEH)
Lyliana Gayoso: Center for Economic and Human Development (CEDEH)
Eliana Rubiano-Matulevich: The World Bank
Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza: The World Bank

Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 2025, vol. 9, issue 3, No 2, 423-457

Abstract: Abstract In Grenada, poor households tend to reside inland, away from the coast. In this study, we analyze the relationship between poverty and exposure to inland flood risk, often overlooked in Small Island Developing States (SIDS), by integrating detailed, geolocated household survey data with multiple return period global flood hazards maps. Unlike prior studies relying on aggregate data or focusing on specific communities impacted by historical flood events, this research analyzes flood exposure and poverty nationally at the individual household level. We find that poverty rates in inland flood-prone areas are double those in areas of lower flood risk. Notably, impoverished households face significantly higher flood depths, particularly during rare, but significant flood events with depths three times greater than wealthier households. The relationship between exposure to inland flood risk and other vulnerability factors, such as household demographics, housing materials, and household head characteristics are explored. Our results, robust across different model specifications and geographic restrictions, highlight the need to incorporate inland flood risk assessment into national poverty reduction strategies, with a focus on high-poverty regions. The granular, geolocated survey data enables spatial analysis that could be expanded to assist with more comprehensive future risk assessments.

Keywords: Natural hazards; Flood; Poverty; Welfare; Hazard maps; Household survey analysis; I3; Q50; Q54; R2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s41885-025-00172-w

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