The Formation of Production Expectations in Manufacturing Industry for Nine Industrialized Countries

Jakob Madsen

Empirical Economics, 1993, vol. 18, issue 3, 21 pages

Abstract: Using tendency surveys in the manufacturing industry for nine countries, different production expectations formation mechanisms are tested. "Simple" expectations hypotheses are compared by conducting nested and non-nested tests, and whether other information than that based solely on past production and expectations, is taken into consideration. It is found that expectations in most cases are formed regressively and/or follow a combined regressive and adaptive process and that information other than past production and expectations, only influence the formation of current expectations weakly. Finally, the rational expectations hypothesis is weakly rejected.

Date: 1993
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Working Paper: Formation of Production Expectations in Manufacturing Industry for Nine Industrialized Countries (1991)
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