How to Suppress a Lead: Comment

Georg Goldrian

Empirical Economics, 1995, vol. 20, issue 1, 177-81

Abstract: According to the findings of Scholer (1994)' the "Business Climate" developed by the ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich, cannot be used as a leading indicator for business cycle forecast. This paper shows that this result is due to Scholer's choice of statistical methods applied: apart from generating stationary time series, Scholer's filter systematically suppresses the business cycle components and amplifies the irregular components. It impairs the basis for the causality test.

Date: 1995
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