Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations

Danny Quah ()

Empirical Economics, 1996, vol. 21, issue 1, 137-59

Abstract: This paper models fluctuations in regional disaggregates as a nonstationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables study of the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the US, the leading state-- regardless of which it happens to be--contains strong predictive power for aggregate fluctuations. This effect is difficult to understand if only aggregate disturbances affect aggregate business cycles through aggregate propagation mechanisms. Instead, a better picture might be one of a "wave" of regional dynamics, rippling across the national economy.

Date: 1996
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Working Paper: Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations (1995)
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