The minimum wage, employment, and the AS-IF methodology: A forecasting approach to evaluating the minimum wage

Paul Wolfson and Dale Belman ()
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Paul Wolfson: Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, Dartmouth College, Hanover, N.H. USA 03755
Dale Belman: Michigan State University, School of Labor and Industrial Relations, 4th Floor, South Kedzie Hall, East Lansing, MI 48824-1032

Empirical Economics, 2001, vol. 26, issue 3, 487-514

Abstract: Out-of-sample employment forecasts for 33 U.S. industries which are likely to be sensitive to the federal minimum wage are, more often than not, more accurate when information about the minimum wage is not taken into account. This is true even in instances where this information improves wage forecasts. When employment forecasts conditional on the minimum wage are better, the improvement is typically small. These results are invariant to the number of workers previously making less than the new minimum wage, and to the value of the minimum wage relative to industry average wages.

Keywords: Minimum Wage; Wage; Forecast Accuracy Comparisons; Box-Jenkins Modeling; Intervention Analysis; Time Series Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001-08-20
Note: received: August 1999/Final version received: July 2000
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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