The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential

Michael Fertig

Empirical Economics, 2001, vol. 26, issue 4, 707-720

Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants of immigration flows to Germany in a time series-cross section framework. The reduced form of a well established theoretical model is estimated for a sample of 17 sending countries and a period covering 1960 to 1994. The estimates are then used to perform out-of-sample forecasts to assess the immigration potential from the Eastern European accession candidates to Germany. These scenarios predict a moderate increase in immigration to Germany, especially for the first round accession candidates.

Keywords: Immigration; time series-cross section estimation; out-of-sample forecasting. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 C53 F22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001-12-05
Note: received: July 1999/Final version received: July 2000
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (66)

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