Accuracy and reliability of Spanish regional accounts (CRE-95)

Verónica Cañal-Fernández ()

Empirical Economics, 2012, vol. 43, issue 3, 1299-1320

Abstract: Are estimates accurate? Are these data reliable? Can we evaluate whether successive revisions of the first estimate bring additional information, or whether they are due to the correction of earlier inaccuracies of bias, which does not add any useful information to economic analysts? The response is that a statistical technique, known in economic literature as news versus noise analysis can be used to answer these questions. These concepts were first introduced in ground breaking articles by Mankiw et al. ( 1984 ) on revisions to money stock and Mankiw and Shapiro ( 1986 ) on revisions to Gross National Product in the United States. This method claims that the proximity of the first estimate to the definitive one can be a clue as to its quality. Many studies investigate the magnitude and nature of errors contained throughout the National Account System estimates; however, economic literature offers no option for judging accuracy and reliability in the main Regional Account aggregates, and therefore, this methodology is adopted to assess the accuracy and reliability of the revision process of the Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rates at basic prices, 1995 Base, within the Spanish Regional Accounts (CRE-95). For that purpose, this study examines five comprehensive revisions analyses for a range of eighteen Autonomous Communities (NUTS-2) during 1999. Main conclusions are: the quality of the estimates tends to increase over time; and the process can be explained better as reflecting new information than as correcting measurement errors so that the National Statistics Institute’s procedure can be deemed to be suitable. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

Keywords: Spanish regional accounts; Gross value added; Accuracy; Reliability; Revisions; Growth rates; C1; C82; C22; C53; C10; E00; E01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-011-0513-9

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