The relationship between GDP and the size of the informal economy: empirical evidence for Spain

Pablo Duarte

Empirical Economics, 2017, vol. 52, issue 4, No 11, 1409-1421

Abstract: Abstract The empirical evidence on the linkage of the informal economy and GDP is ambiguous. It depends on the method used to estimate the size of the informal economy, since each method includes some specific approach noise. I propose a common factor of four different informality measurement methods as a way of reducing the noise. Using Spain as an example I find that neither GDP Granger-causes informality nor informality Granger-causes GDP. If at all, GDP and informality only weakly respond to shocks of the other variable. The formal and informal economies in Spain seem to be rather independent arenas for economic exchange.

Keywords: Informal economy; Dynamic factor model; Granger causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1109-1

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