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On predicting the semiconductor industry cycle: a Bayesian model averaging approach

Wen-Hsien Liu and Shu-Shih Weng ()
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Shu-Shih Weng: National Chung Cheng University

Empirical Economics, 2018, vol. 54, issue 2, No 14, 673-703

Abstract: Abstract This study considers the model uncertainty and utilizes the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach to identify useful predictors of the semiconductor industry cycle from a list of 70 potential predictors. The posterior inclusion probabilities, posterior means, and posterior standard deviations over the period of 1995:05–2012:10 are estimated and consequently used to identify the main determinants of the industry cycle. It is found that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and total inventories in various downstream industries have important roles in signaling the industry growth. The results from an out-of-sample forecasting exercise also reveal the predictive potential and usefulness of BMA for the long-term prediction.

Keywords: Bayesian model averaging; Semiconductor; Industry cycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C53 L16 L63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1198-x

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