Is inflation targeting credible in Asia? A panel GARCH approach
Harold Glenn A. Valera (),
Mark Holmes () and
Gazi Hassan ()
Additional contact information
Harold Glenn A. Valera: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)
Empirical Economics, 2018, vol. 54, issue 2, 523-546
Abstract We examine the relationship between inflation targeting and the behavior of the level and volatility of inflation for eight Asian countries over the period 1987–2013. In contrast to existing studies that rely upon time series methods, we employ a novel panel GARCH model that accounts for heterogeneity and interdependence across countries. Our main contribution is to shed new light on the inflation targeting credibility hypothesis based on lower inflation and inflation volatility as well as on the correlation between unanticipated inflation shocks within a panel GARCH framework. We find strong evidence of a reduction in the level of inflation that operates from the impact of actual inflation targets in the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand. We also find that the adoption of inflation targeting helped lower inflation volatility in the Philippines and South Korea. Overall, the results suggest that Asian inflation targeting regimes are more credible in terms of reducing the level of inflation than lowering inflation volatility. There is also evidence that the covariance of inflation shocks among inflation targeting and non-targeting countries tends to increase.
Keywords: Inflation targeting; Inflation volatility; Panel GARCH; Credibility; Asia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-016-1212-3 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1212-3
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... rics/journal/181/PS2
Access Statistics for this article
Empirical Economics is currently edited by Robert M. Kunst, Badi H. Baltagi, Bertrand Candelon, Subal C. Kumbhakar and Michael Lechner
More articles in Empirical Economics from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().