Oil price uncertainty and real output growth: new evidence from selected oil-importing countries in the Middle East
Basil Awartani () and
Osama Sweidan ()
Additional contact information
Basil Awartani: University of Westminster
Empirical Economics, 2019, vol. 56, issue 5, No 7, 1621 pages
Abstract This paper provides an empirical evidence on the influence of oil price uncertainty on the real economic activity in Jordan and Turkey during the period 1986:01–2014:12. To measure the effect of uncertainty, the paper combines a bivariate structural VAR with a GARCH-in-mean process that allows oil volatility to affect the growth of industrial production. Our results indicate that oil market uncertainty has a negative influence on the industrial output of Jordan and Turkey. For instance, the increase in one standard error of oil price uncertainty is found to be associated with a decline of 0.81 and 1.01% in the industrial production of Jordan and Turkey, respectively. Moreover, consistent with the recent empirical evidence, we find that output growth increases/decreases after a negative/positive oil price shock. These results imply that sound energy policies that mitigate the effect of oil market uncertainty may help in stabilizing output in both countries.
Keywords: Oil price volatility; Economic activity; Multivariate GARCH-in-mean VAR; Symmetric effect; Jordan; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-017-1402-7 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:empeco:v:56:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1402-7
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... rics/journal/181/PS2
Access Statistics for this article
Empirical Economics is currently edited by Robert M. Kunst, Arthur H.O. van Soest, Bertrand Candelon, Subal C. Kumbhakar and Joakim Westerlund
More articles in Empirical Economics from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().