A marked point process model for intraday financial returns: modeling extreme risk

Rodrigo Herrera and Adam Clements

Empirical Economics, 2020, vol. 58, issue 4, No 4, 1575-1601

Abstract: Abstract Forecasting the risk of extreme losses is an important issue in the management of financial risk and has attracted a great deal of research attention. However, little attention has been paid to extreme losses in a higher frequency intraday setting. This paper proposes a novel marked point process model to capture extreme risk in intraday returns, taking into account a range of trading activity and liquidity measures. A novel approach is proposed for defining the threshold upon which extreme events are identified taking into account the diurnal patterns in intraday trading activity. It is found that models including covariates, mainly relating to trading intensity and spreads offer the best in-sample fit, and prediction of extreme risk, in particular at higher quantiles.

Keywords: Hawkes process; Peaks over threshold; Bid-ask spread; Extreme risk; High frequency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 C58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-018-1600-y Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:empeco:v:58:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-018-1600-y

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... rics/journal/181/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1600-y

Access Statistics for this article

Empirical Economics is currently edited by Robert M. Kunst, Arthur H.O. van Soest, Bertrand Candelon, Subal C. Kumbhakar and Joakim Westerlund

More articles in Empirical Economics from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().