Crime, deterrence and punishment revisited

Maurice J. G. Bun (), Richard Kelaher, Vasilis Sarafidis and Don Weatherburn
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Maurice J. G. Bun: University of Amsterdam and De Nederlandsche Bank
Richard Kelaher: The University of Sydney Business School
Don Weatherburn: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research

Empirical Economics, 2020, vol. 59, issue 5, No 10, 2303-2333

Abstract: Abstract Despite an abundance of empirical evidence on crime spanning over 40 years, there exists no consensus on the impact of the criminal justice system on crime activity. We construct a new panel data set that contains all relevant variables prescribed by economic theory. Our identification strategy allows for a feedback relationship between crime and deterrence variables, and it controls for omitted variables and measurement error. We deviate from the majority of the literature in that we specify a dynamic model, which captures the essential feature of habit formation and persistence in aggregate behaviour. Our results show that the criminal justice system exerts a large influence on crime activity. Increasing the risk of apprehension and conviction is more influential in reducing crime than raising the expected severity of punishment.

Keywords: Crime; Deterrence; Feedback; Omitted variable bias; Measurement error; Panel data; GMM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 C36 K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Working Paper: Crime, Deterrence and Punishment Revisited (2016)
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01758-6

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