EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

On the contribution of international shocks in Australian business cycle fluctuations

Jamie L. Cross () and Aubrey Poon ()
Additional contact information
Jamie L. Cross: BI Norwegian Business School

Empirical Economics, 2020, vol. 59, issue 6, No 2, 2613-2637

Abstract: Abstract What proportion of Australian business cycle fluctuations are caused by international shocks? We address this question by estimating a panel VAR model that has time-varying parameters and a common stochastic volatility factor. The time-varying parameters capture the inter-temporal nature of Australia’s various bilateral trade relationships, while the common stochastic volatility factor captures various episodes of volatility clustering among macroeconomic shocks, e.g., the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2007/08 Global Financial Crisis. Our main result is that international shocks from Australia’s five largest trading partners: China, Japan, the EU, the USA and the Republic of Korea, have caused around half of all Australian business cycle fluctuations over the past two decades. We also find important changes in the relative importance of each country’s economic impact. For instance, China’s positive contribution increased throughout the mining boom of the 2000s, while the overall US influence has almost halved since the 1990s.

Keywords: Australian economy; Business cycles; Panel VAR; Stochastic volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-019-01752-y Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:empeco:v:59:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01752-y

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... rics/journal/181/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01752-y

Access Statistics for this article

Empirical Economics is currently edited by Robert M. Kunst, Arthur H.O. van Soest, Bertrand Candelon, Subal C. Kumbhakar and Joakim Westerlund

More articles in Empirical Economics from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().

 
Page updated 2021-09-28
Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:59:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01752-y