EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Predicting recessions with a frontier measure of output gap: an application to Italian economy

Camilla Mastromarco (), Leopold Simar () and Valentin Zelenyuk
Additional contact information
Camilla Mastromarco: Universitá della Calabria

Empirical Economics, 2021, vol. 60, issue 6, No 3, 2740 pages

Abstract: Abstract Despite the long and great history, developed institutions, and high level of physical and human capital, the Italian economy has been fairly stagnant during the last three decades. In this paper, we merge two streams of literature: nonparametric methods to estimate frontier efficiency of an economy, which allows us to develop a new measure of output gap, and nonparametric methods to estimate probability of an economic recession. To illustrate the new framework, we use quarterly data for Italy from 1995 to 2019 and find that our model, using either nonparametric or the linear probit model, is able to provide useful insights.

Keywords: Forecasting; Output gap; Robust nonparametric frontier; Generalized nonparametric quasi-likelihood method; Italian recession (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C14 C32 C5 D24 E37 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-021-02029-z Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
Working Paper: Predicting recessions with a frontier measure of output gap: an application to Italian economy (2021)
Working Paper: Predicting Recessions with a Frontier Measure of Output Gap: An Application to Italian Economy (2020) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:empeco:v:60:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1007_s00181-021-02029-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... rics/journal/181/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s00181-021-02029-z

Access Statistics for this article

Empirical Economics is currently edited by Robert M. Kunst, Arthur H.O. van Soest, Bertrand Candelon, Subal C. Kumbhakar and Joakim Westerlund

More articles in Empirical Economics from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().

 
Page updated 2022-01-17
Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:60:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1007_s00181-021-02029-z