The impact of pandemic on dynamic volatility spillover network of international stock markets

Tingting Lan, Liuguo Shao (), Hua Zhang () and Caijun Yuan
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Tingting Lan: Central South University
Liuguo Shao: Central South University
Hua Zhang: Central South University
Caijun Yuan: Communication University of China

Empirical Economics, 2023, vol. 65, issue 5, No 5, 2115-2144

Abstract: Abstract Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, several pandemics, including SARS and COVID-19, have spread faster and on a broader scale. Not only do they harm people’s health, but they can also cause significant damage to the global economy within a short period of time. This study uses the infectious disease EMV tracker index to investigate the impact of pandemics on the volatility spillover effects of global stock markets. Spillover index model estimation is conducted using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive approach, and the maximum spanning tree and threshold filtering techniques are combined to construct the dynamic network of volatility spillovers. The conclusion from the dynamic network is that when a pandemic occurs, the total volatility spillover effect increases sharply. In particular, the total volatility spillover effect historically peaked during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, when pandemics occur, the density of the volatility spillover network increases, while the diameter of the network decreases. This indicates that global financial markets are increasingly interconnected, speeding up the transmission of volatility information. The empirical results further reveal that volatility spillovers among international markets have a significant positive correlation with the severity of a pandemic. The study’s findings are expected to help investors and policymakers understand volatility spillovers during pandemics.

Keywords: Volatility spillover; Dynamic network; Pandemic; EMVID (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02422-w

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