Health care policy uncertainty and state-level employment

Nopphol Witvorapong and Chak Hung Jack Cheng ()
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Chak Hung Jack Cheng: University of South Carolina Upstate

Empirical Economics, 2024, vol. 66, issue 6, No 6, 2532 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study investigates the effects of health care policy uncertainty (HCPU) on aggregate- and state-level employment in the USA. Using quarterly data during 1985Q1–2021Q4, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that HCPU has adverse effects on both aggregate- and state-level employment. The effects at the state level are heterogeneous in terms of both the magnitude and the impact persistence, lasting up to 5 quarters. The heterogeneity can be explained by state-specific structural factors, most notably the right-to-work legislation. The study suggests that uncertainty in health care policies has an economic cost that may be partially preventable.

Keywords: Health care policy uncertainty; Health policy; Employment; VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02532-5

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