Gloomy expectations after the invasion of Ukraine

Domenico Depalo

Empirical Economics, 2024, vol. 67, issue 1, No 5, 97-109

Abstract: Abstract Using the Consumer Expectations Survey of the ECB, I estimate how individual expectations on core economic outcomes changed in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain right after the beginning of the Ukraine–Russia war. I find that individuals expected lower economic growth and higher inflation. The effect of the war was larger in the countries with a higher energy-imports dependency. Hence, the expectation formation process might have changed.

Keywords: Expectations; War; Ukraine; Russia; Consumer expectation survey (CES) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 H56 J69 P42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02550-3

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