COVID-19 diagnoses and university student performance: evidence from linked administrative health and education data

Timothy F. Harris () and C. Lockwood Reynolds ()
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Timothy F. Harris: Illinois State University
C. Lockwood Reynolds: Kent State University

Empirical Economics, 2025, vol. 68, issue 2, No 6, 603-637

Abstract: Abstract We analyze the impact of COVID-19 diagnoses on student grades, retention, and on-time graduation at a large public university in the USA. Even though COVID-19 rarely causes major health complications for university students, diagnosis and quarantine may cause non-trivial disruptions to learning. Using event study analysis, we find that a COVID-19 diagnosis decreased a student’s term grade point average (GPA) modestly by 0.09 standard deviations in the semester of diagnosis without significant effects afterward. The results were more pronounced for male students, individuals with face-to-face instruction, and those with higher GPAs before the pandemic. We do not find a significant increase in the incidence of failing or withdrawing from a course due to diagnosis. In addition, we find no general evidence that the diagnoses delayed graduation or significantly altered first-year retention. However, the University experienced significant grade inflation during the pandemic, like other institutions, which exceeded the estimated effects of any COVID-19 diagnoses.

Keywords: COVID-19; Higher education; Student success; Student absences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I10 I21 I23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-024-02653-5

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