How adolescent adversity affects late-life fertility outcomes: evidence from China

Shuang Yu (), Subo Yang () and Yinhe Liang ()
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Shuang Yu: Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Research Institute of Social Development
Subo Yang: Central University of Finance and Economics, School of Economics
Yinhe Liang: Central University of Finance and Economics, School of Economics

Empirical Economics, 2025, vol. 69, issue 6, No 29, 3993-4032

Abstract: Abstract This paper presents new evidence on the causal link between adolescent adversity and late-life fertility outcomes in China. We adopt a fuzzy regression discontinuity design by exploiting the “send-down” movement during China’s Cultural Revolution. The policy was a social and political campaign in the 1960s and 1970s in which educated urban youths were sent to rural areas to learn from farmers. We find that the send-down movement increased the fertility age and decreased the probability of giving birth before 25, the number of children, and the probability of having a second child. These effects can be attributed to delaying marriage, changing fertility concepts, deteriorating health status, and increasing unhealthy behaviors. These findings highlight the need for governments to address and mitigate adolescent adversities, as they can have long-lasting impacts on late-life fertility outcomes, influencing population dynamics and societal structures in significant ways.

Keywords: Adolescent adversity; Fertility outcomes; Send-down movement; Fuzzy regression discontinuity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-025-02832-y

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