Non-transitive patterns in sports match outcomes: a profitable anomaly

Jan C. van Ours ()
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Jan C. van Ours: Erasmus School of Economics

Empirical Economics, 2025, vol. 69, issue 6, No 31, 4057-4087

Abstract: Abstract Sports betting markets share similarities with traditional financial markets. However, they are more accessible for empirical research thanks to availability of high-quality data. As a result, they often serve as a field laboratory for studying financial markets. This study examines 25 seasons of English Premier League matches, revealing consistent nontransitive patterns in match outcomes among various triads (groups of three clubs). These empirical findings are difficult to rationalize and represent a notable anomaly. Bookmakers ignore the non-transitive patterns when setting odds. Faced with a trade-off between efficiency using historical information and maintaining consistency when setting their odds, they prioritize consistency.

Keywords: Market efficiency; Sports betting; Non-transitivity; Football; English premier league (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 D01 Z20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-025-02838-6

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