Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics

Xiao-Jun Wang (), Jian-Yun Zhang, Shamsuddin Shahid, Wei Xie, Chao-Yang Du, Xiao-Chuan Shang and Xu Zhang
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Xiao-Jun Wang: Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
Jian-Yun Zhang: Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
Shamsuddin Shahid: Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
Wei Xie: Ministry of Water Resources
Chao-Yang Du: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xiao-Chuan Shang: Huaihe River Water Resources Commission
Xu Zhang: Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2018, vol. 20, issue 2, No 22, 924 pages

Abstract: Abstract A statistical model has been developed to forecast domestic water demand by considering climate change, population growth, urbanization, lifestyle changes and technological advances. The developed model is used to forecast future domestic water demand in different sub-basins of Huaihe River Basin of China. The study reveals that mean temperature in Huaihe River Basin will increase by 0.7–1.6 °C, population will reach to 230 million, and 61.2% of the basin area will be urbanized by the year 2030, which will cause a sharp increase in domestic water demand. The increase in domestic water demand for 1 °C increase in mean temperature is found to vary between 0.549 × 108 and 5.759 × 108 m3 for different sub-basins of Huaihe River. The forecasted change in domestic water demand is also found to vary widely for different general circulation models (GCMs) used. The GCM BCC-CSM1-1 projected the highest increase in domestic water demand, 168.44 × 108 m3 in 2020, and the GISS-E2-R the lowest, 119.21 × 108 m3. On the other hand, the BNU-ESM projected the highest increase, 196.03 × 108 m3, and the CNRM-CM5 the lowest, 161.05 × 108 m3 in year 2030. Among the different sub-basins, the highest increase in water demand is projected in Middlestream of Huaihe River in the range of 46.9 × 108–65.5 × 108 m3 in 2020, and 61.3 × 108–76.1 × 108 m3 in 2030, which is supposed to cause serious water shortage and an increase in competition among water-using sectors.

Keywords: Water demand forecast; Climate change; Domestic water use; Water resources management; Huaihe River Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-017-9919-7

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