Projected changes in corn crop productivity and profitability in Parana, Brazil

Nicole Costa Resende Ferreira () and Jarbas Honorio Miranda ()
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Nicole Costa Resende Ferreira: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
Jarbas Honorio Miranda: Universidade de Sao Paulo, Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2021, vol. 23, issue 3, No 16, 3236-3250

Abstract: Abstract We investigate the impacts of climate changes in corn crop profitability and productivity in Parana (Brazil), using SISDRENA model, considering different spacings between drains. SISDRENA model is used as input, daily precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration, properties of the drainage system, data of crop requirement, and physical and hydrological soil parameters. We use climate data from the Eta model. The baseline period of the simulation is from 1981 to 2005. For the future projections, we use the greenhouse gas emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, from 2046 to 2070. We concluded that there are variations in evapotranspiration over the years in the historical simulation, but in the future, this variability tends to be higher. There is a tendency for increased evapotranspiration in both scenarios in the future. We found a large variability of precipitation in both historical simulation and future projections. Changes in precipitation depend on location. In terms of both profitability and productivity, the 10-m spacing between drains is the most recommended. In historical simulation and future projections, it is found large variability in corn productivity over the years. We found that there is no agreement between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which shows uncertainty in the results. In general, in RCP4.5 the tendency is to increase 3% of productivity (not significant), while in RCP8.5 the tendency is to decrease 1% (significant), compared to the baseline period. This research contributes to better farmer management and decision making, providing recommendations for the best layout for current and future climate, and indicates trends in corn productivity in future scenarios.

Keywords: SISDRENA; Eta model; Drainage systems; Climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-00715-z

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