Conservation planning of cash crops species (Garcinia gummi-gutta) under current and future climate in the Western Ghats, India

Malay Pramanik (), Atul Kumar Diwakar, Poli Dash, Sylvia Szabo and Indrajit Pal
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Malay Pramanik: Jawaharlal Nehru University
Atul Kumar Diwakar: Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna Garhwal University
Poli Dash: Deshapran College of Teachers Education
Sylvia Szabo: Asian Institute of Technology (AIT)
Indrajit Pal: Asian Institute of Technology (AIT)

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2021, vol. 23, issue 4, No 29, 5345-5370

Abstract: Abstract Agriculture, global biodiversity and distribution of species are increasingly influenced by changing climate. Assessing the future distribution of biodiversity under different climate change scenarios is an essential step towards conservation planning and policy implementations. To understand the climate change impacts, the present study used Garcinia gummi-gutta cash crop species as a case study that is even exported, adding the nation’s foreign reserve. Given the importance of this crop for local and national economy, the main objectives of the study were to analyse the impact of present and future climates on ecologically susceptible G. gummi-gutta species in the Western Ghats based on maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). Future projections with RCP scenarios for 2050 and 2070 were made using the data of 84 species occurrence and climatic variables of three climate models from IPCC 5th assessment. The contribution of climatic variables was analysed by jackknife test, and 0.888 of AOC indicates high accuracy of the model results. It was found that annual precipitation, coldest quarter precipitation, and precipitation seasonality were the key determining factors for the suitability of this species. In addition, the results of all scenarios showed that the current suitability of the species would be dramatically decreased by 2050 and 2070. The study suggests how the MaxEnt approach can be an important tool for agricultural development, management of species habitats, conservation of biodiversity, and climate change rehabitation planning.

Keywords: Agricultural sustainability; Climate change; Conservation planning; Garcinia gummi-gutta; Maximum entropy modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-00819-6

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