Understanding COVID-19 transmission through Bayesian probabilistic modeling and GIS-based Voronoi approach: a policy perspective

Hemant Bherwani (), Saima Anjum, Suman Kumar, Sneha Gautam, Ankit Gupta, Himanshu Kumbhare, Avneesh Anshul and Rakesh Kumar
Additional contact information
Hemant Bherwani: CSIR-National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (CSIR-NEERI)
Saima Anjum: CSIR-National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (CSIR-NEERI)
Suman Kumar: CSIR-National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (CSIR-NEERI)
Sneha Gautam: Karunya Institute of Technology and Sciences
Ankit Gupta: CSIR-National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (CSIR-NEERI)
Himanshu Kumbhare: CSIR-National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (CSIR-NEERI)
Avneesh Anshul: CSIR-National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (CSIR-NEERI)
Rakesh Kumar: CSIR-National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (CSIR-NEERI)

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2021, vol. 23, issue 4, No 52, 5846-5864

Abstract: Abstract Originating from Wuhan, China, COVID-19 is spreading rapidly throughout the world. The transmission rate is reported to be high for this novel strain of coronavirus, called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), as compared to its predecessors. Major strategies in terms of clinical trials of medicines and vaccines, social distancing, use of personal protective equipment (PPE), and so on are being implemented in order to control the spread. The current study concentrates on lockdown and social distancing policy followed by the Indian Government and evaluates its effectiveness using Bayesian probability model (BPM). The change point analysis (CPA) done through the above approach suggests that the states which implemented the lockdown before the exponential rise of cases are able to control the spread of the disease in a much better and efficient way. The analysis has been done for states of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, and Delhi as union territory. The highest value of Δ (delta) is reported for Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh with a value of 9.6 weeks, while the lowest value is 4.7, evidently for Maharashtra which is the worst affected. All of the states indicate a significant correlation (p tcritical) for Δ, i.e., the difference in the time period of CPA and lockdown with cases per population (CPP) and cases per unit area (CPUA), while weak correlation (p tcritical indicating a significant correlation, while Pearson’s correlation indicates the direction to be negative. Further analysis in terms of identification of high-risk areas has been studied from the Voronoi approach of GIS based on the inputs from BPM. All the states follow the above pattern of high population, high case scenario, and the boundaries of risk zones can be identified by Thiessen polygon (TP) constructed therein. The findings of the study help draw strategic and policy-driven response for India, toward tackling COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Bayesian probability; Change point analysis; Voronoi diagram (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-020-00849-0 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s10668-020-00849-0

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10668

DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-00849-0

Access Statistics for this article

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development is currently edited by Luc Hens

More articles in Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().