Parametric uncertainty analysis on hydrodynamic coefficients in groundwater numerical models using Monte Carlo method and RPEM

Maryam Sadat Kahe (), Saman Javadi (), Abbas Roozbahani () and Kourosh Mohammadi ()
Additional contact information
Maryam Sadat Kahe: University of Tehran
Saman Javadi: University of Tehran
Abbas Roozbahani: University of Tehran
Kourosh Mohammadi: HLV2K Engineering Limited

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2021, vol. 23, issue 8, No 22, 11583-11606

Abstract: Abstract Groundwater resources are the only source of water in many arid and semi-arid regions. It is important to manage these resources to have a sustainable development. However, there are many factors influencing the accuracy of the results in groundwater modeling. In this research, the uncertainty of two important groundwater model parameters (hydraulic conductivity and specific yield) were considered as the main sources of uncertainty in estimating water level in an unconfined aquifer, in Iran. For this purpose, a simple method called Rosenblueth Point Estimate Method (RPEM) was used to assess groundwater modeling parametric uncertainty, and its performance was compared with Monte Carlo method as a very complicated and time-consuming method. According to calibrated values of hydraulic conductivity and specific yield, several uncertainty intervals were considered to analyze uncertainty. The results showed that the optimum interval for hydraulic conductivity was 40% increase–30% decrease of the calibrated values in both Monte Carlo and RPEM methods. This interval for specific yield was 200% increase–90% decrease of the calibrated values. RPEM showed better performance using the evaluating indices in comparison with Monte Carlo method for both hydraulic conductivity and specific yield with 43% and 17% higher index values, respectively. These results can be used in groundwater management and future prediction of groundwater level.

Keywords: Hydrodynamic coefficients; Numerical modeling; Uncertainty range; Monte carlo; RPEM method; Ali-abad aquifer (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-020-01128-8 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:8:d:10.1007_s10668-020-01128-8

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10668

DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01128-8

Access Statistics for this article

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development is currently edited by Luc Hens

More articles in Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().