Socio-economic impact assessment of environmental degradation in Pakistan: fresh evidence from the Markov switching equilibrium correction model

Syed Ale Raza Shah (), Syed Asif Ali Naqvi (), Sofia Anwar, Ashfaq Ahmad Shah () and Abdul Majeed Nadeem ()
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Syed Ale Raza Shah: Xi’an Jiaotong University
Syed Asif Ali Naqvi: Government College University
Ashfaq Ahmad Shah: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Abdul Majeed Nadeem: Government College University

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2022, vol. 24, issue 12, No 16, 13786-13816

Abstract: Abstract Environmental degradation is a severe problem for all nations, especially for developing ones like Pakistan. For analysis purpose, this study employed two proxies of environmental degradation, i.e., carbon emission and ecological footprint as the explained variables during 1980–2017. In contrast, real GDP per capita, electricity consumption, financial development, urbanization, life expectancy rate, and fertility rate are used as independent variables. For the empirical analysis, Johnson co-integration, Markov switching equilibrium correction model (MS-ECM), and other second-generation econometric models have been used. Granger causality is also used to quantify the causal association among concern variables. MS-ECM results showed that there is U-shaped behaviour that holds for the case of ecological footprint and real GDP; on the other hand, inverted U-shaped behaviour has been seen between CO2 and real GDP. Study found negative association between electricity consumption and environmental degradation to save the environment. Study suggests that electricity production sector should be shifted from non-renewable to renewable energy (solar and wind) sources for sustainable future.

Keywords: Ecological footprints; Carbon emission; Markov switching regression; EKC; Economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-02013-8

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