Sustainable development of China's regions from the perspective of ecological welfare performance: analysis based on GM(1,1) and the malmquist index

Yu Song () and Dong Mei ()
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Yu Song: Ningxia University
Dong Mei: Ningxia University

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2022, vol. 24, issue 1, No 46, 1086-1115

Abstract: Abstract Ecological welfare performance is a measure of the relationship between input ecological resources and output welfare, and it reflects the sustainable development status of a region. In this paper, the environmental resource consumption and human development index of four areas (covering thirty provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities) in China from 2019 to 2020 were predicted using the GM (1,1) model. The status and trend of sustainable development were evaluated using the Malmquist index and its decomposition index (catch-up effect and frontier e impact of movement). The corresponding regions' environmental resource consumption data and human development index from 2011–2018 were used for the analyses. The following results were obtained: (1) In terms of the catch-up effect. However, Beijing shows a greater technical efficiency than other regions with values less than 1, which is a drag on sustainable development. (2) Regarding the frontier movement effect, all regions' technical level has improved, and the frontier exhibits an upward trend. (3) According to the Malmquist total factor productivity index, the sustainability status has been continuously deteriorating in all regions, except for improvements in a few areas. (4) In terms of planning periods, the frontier movement effect positively contributed to sustainable development in all regions during the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plan periods; in other words, technological innovation promotes sustainable development. Except in Beijing, the catch-up effect had negative contributions. By combining the gray prediction model with the Malmquist index, the authors provide more in-depth insight into the sustainable development of four regions in China from ecological welfare performance.

Keywords: Ecological welfare performance; GM (1; 1); China; Sustainable development; Malmquist index (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01485-y

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