The effect of climate change on the future of rainfed wheat cultivation in Iran

Parisa Alizadeh-Dehkordi, Behnam Kamkar () and Alireza Nehbandani
Additional contact information
Parisa Alizadeh-Dehkordi: Shahrekord University
Behnam Kamkar: Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
Alireza Nehbandani: Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2024, vol. 26, issue 1, No 28, 687-709

Abstract: Abstract Rising temperatures of 1.5–4 °C by the end of the twenty-first century and continuing after 2100 have caused climate change to threaten food security. Indeed, the rainfed production of strategic crops such as wheat in countries such as Iran, which are likely to be highly affected by climate change, is very important. This study aimed to identify the suitable areas for rainfed wheat cultivation and the yield gap estimation in current and future climatic conditions using geographical analysis, a crop simulation model, and the GYGA protocol in Iran. For this, environmental variables (including average, minimum, and maximum temperatures, rainfall) along with topographic (slope, elevation) and edaphic components (such as organic carbon, pH, EC, [CaCO3], exchangeable sodium percentage, cation exchange capacity, and soil erosion) were involved. The results revealed that around 30% of the total areas (6.62 million ha) are not suitable at all, while just 13% of total lands (2.97 million ha) were highly suitable and suitable. These areas are mainly located in the northern part of Iran. The study of the climate change scenarios indicated that the northern, northwestern, and western parts of the country have great potential for rainfed wheat production and future climate change will benefit wheat production in these areas, but in other parts of the country, more unfavorable conditions are expected. The mean water-limited potential yield (Yw) difference between marginally suitable to not suitable classes was narrow (

Keywords: Climate change; Land suitability; Soil; Topography; GYGA; Yield gap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-022-02728-2 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10668-022-02728-2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10668

DOI: 10.1007/s10668-022-02728-2

Access Statistics for this article

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development is currently edited by Luc Hens

More articles in Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().