Research on sustainable development evaluation and improvement path of resource-based cities based on coupling of emergy and system dynamics

Haichao Ma, Qingsong Wang (), Yujie Zhang, Muhammad Bilal Hussain, Yue Xu, Shu Tian, Xueliang Yuan, Qiao Ma, Renxiao Yuan and Yanshuang Jia
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Haichao Ma: Shandong University
Qingsong Wang: Shandong University
Yujie Zhang: Shandong University
Muhammad Bilal Hussain: Shandong University
Yue Xu: Shandong University
Shu Tian: Shandong University
Xueliang Yuan: Shandong University
Qiao Ma: Shandong University
Renxiao Yuan: Shandong University
Yanshuang Jia: Shandong University

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2024, vol. 26, issue 3, No 19, 5959-6006

Abstract: Abstract The evaluation of the sustainable development of resource-based cities is still one of the hotspots in today’s social research. Taking Jining, Shandong Province, as the research object, this work combines a relevant emergy evaluation index system with system dynamics, establishes a resource-based city emergy flow system dynamics model, and studies sustainable development path in the next planning year. In the work, the key factors affecting the sustainable development of Jining are obtained through the coupling of regression and SD sensitivity analysis, and some scenarios are set up by combining them with the local 14th Five-year plan. Besides, the appropriate scenario (M–L–H–H) for Jining's future sustainable development is chosen in accordance with regional circumstances. That is, during the 14th Five-year Plan period, the appropriate development ranges for the growth rate of social fixed assets investment, the growth rate of raw coal emergy, the growth rate of grain emergy and the reduction rate of solid waste emergy are 17.5–18.3%, − 4.0 to − 3.2%, 1.8–2.6% and 4–4.8%. The methodology system constructed in this article can serve as a reference for similar studies, and the research findings can aid the government in formulating pertinent plans for resource-based cities.

Keywords: Sustainability; Emergy; System dynamics; Scenario combination; Regression analysis; Monte Carlo simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-02946-2

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