A group decision model to support the water resources conflict resolution in Carás Valley, a northeast Brazilian region

Emerson Rodrigues Sabino (), Danielle Costa Morais, Leandro Chaves Rêgo and Gabriela Silva Silva
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Emerson Rodrigues Sabino: Universidade Federal de Pernambuco – UFPE
Danielle Costa Morais: Universidade Federal de Pernambuco – UFPE
Leandro Chaves Rêgo: Universidade Federal do Ceará – UFC
Gabriela Silva Silva: Universidade Federal de Pernambuco – UFPE

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2024, vol. 26, issue 3, No 105, 8139-8157

Abstract: Abstract A water resources conflict over the perennialized water in Carás Valley in the Salgado basin is systematically studied using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR). This conflict took place in the Ceará Brazilian State, and it is a classic dispute over water resources between both upstream and downstream users mediated by public institutions. Thus, a group decision-making model is proposed to highlight strategic insights for dealing with this conflict. This model includes identifying the conflict in an intelligence phase, and subsequently, carries out the modeling and analysis phases by applying the GMCR method. Based on the stability analysis results, out of the 32 feasible scenarios, only 1 was an equilibrium. This recommended scenario relates to the upstream users maintain the dams built on the stream and the downstream users should report to the authorities the water scarcity. For the public institutions, the model showed they should realize a technical inspection to investigate the water scarcity, as well as negotiate with the upstream users for removal of the dams constructed in the perennial valley. This scenario is robust, since sensitivity analysis showed the equilibrium state remained stable for some modifications on the preference information. The group decision model of this work strategically enhances the way decision makers and mediator could think and act by collaborating directly to provide them insights about how the conflict situation may optimally end up.

Keywords: Conflict Analysis; Water resources; Carás Valley; GMCR; Stability Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03031-4

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