Risks assessment on island micro-grids construction schemes employing a fuzzy-MCDM framework

Haoran Zhao () and Sen Guo
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Haoran Zhao: Beijing Information Science & Technology University
Sen Guo: North China Electric Power University

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2024, vol. 26, issue 5, No 85, 13185-13216

Abstract: Abstract Considering about the particular exterior environment of islands, stability energy supply is difficult to ensure. Since islands own abundant renewable energy resources (RESs), building island micro-grids (IMGs) to make sufficient use of RESs is an effective and applicable way to solve the energy supply problem. Nevertheless, the complicated island environment always brings great risks for IMGs construction. Hence, it is of great significance to conduct risks assessment on IMGs construction schemes to select the optimal one with the lowest risks applied in IMGs construction. Firstly, the risks assessment indicator system is established from economic risks, environmental risks, technological risks, management risks, and political risks dimensions containing 13 sub-criteria and preference values of sub-criteria with regard to schemes are identified by the fuzzy theory. Then, a novel integrated weighting approach integrating objective weights calculated by the anti-entropy weight (AEW) approach and subjective weights identified by the best–worst method (BWM) followed the rule of moment estimation is proposed. Afterward, the CPT combined with fuzzy theory is employed to calculate the hybrid prospect values of schemes. Four IMGs construction schemes are utilized to conduct case analysis and results illustrate that initial investment cost, policy and laws instability, and renewable energy utilization have superior influences on selecting the optimal scheme, while marine environmental impact and natural disaster risk are the last two sub-criteria with the least integrated weights. Moreover, Scheme 4 configured with 100 kW wind turbine, 100 kW PV generator, 100 kW pumped storage, and 500 kW battery energy storage equipment is the optimal scheme with the lowest risks applicable for IMGs construction. Through the robustness discussion, the established fuzzy-MCDM framework combining fuzzy theory, the AEW, the BWM, and the CPT is validity and applicable in IMGs construction schemes risks assessment.

Keywords: Risks assessment; Island micro-grids; Fuzzy theory; The BWM; Cumulative prospect theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-04141-9

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