Spatiotemporal modeling of the value of carbon sequestration under changing land use/land cover using InVEST model: a case study of Nour-rud Watershed, Northern Iran

Nematollah Kohestani (), Shafagh Rastgar (), Ghodratolla Heydari (), Shaban Shataee Jouibary () and Hamid Amirnejad ()
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Nematollah Kohestani: Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University
Shafagh Rastgar: Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University
Ghodratolla Heydari: Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University
Shaban Shataee Jouibary: Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources
Hamid Amirnejad: Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2024, vol. 26, issue 6, No 33, 14477-14505

Abstract: Abstract The current paper aims to assess the effects of landscape change in a mountain river basin in the north of Iran through quantifying, mapping, and assessing carbon storage. The analyses were performed based on previous alterations in land use and land cover (LULC) (1988–2018) and on expected changes determined by three LULC alteration setups for 2048. The Landsat imagery from 2018, 2008, 1998, and 1988 was used for evaluating and predicting the spatiotemporal distributions of LULC changes. The future LULC image prediction has been generated using Land Change Modeler (LCM) module of TerrSet software for the years 2028, 2038, and 2048. Validation was carried out by overlaying the actual and projected to 2018 map. We integrated the Markov Chain (MC) and InVEST Carbon Storage and Sequestration (InVEST-CSS) models for simulating the ecosystem carbon storage and the long-term monetary valuation. In this process, we considered social costs/economic value because of the area’s loss and gain of stored carbon. The results show that forests and rangelands with good and poor conditions decreased by 631.2, 10,374, and 10,254 ha, respectively, from 1988 to 2018. Overall, modeling and mapping LULC changes showed a descending trend in forests (0.66%), agriculture (0.1%), and rangelands (4.1%) in 2048. In addition, carbon storage has already been lost by 9.9 million tons (76.98 ha−1) from 1988 to 8.8 million tons (68.86 ha−1) in 2018 and is expected to have an 8.4 million tons (65.25 ha−1) loss by 2048. Monitoring the economic value of carbon storage from 1988 to 2018 shows a loss of $US 15684338 (121.8 ha−1) and estimates a loss of $US6972622 (54.18 ha−1) by 2048. Therefore, spatiotemporal design of InVEST model by estimating the carbon value over time focuses on continuous monitoring actions for both the carbon pools dynamic and LULC pattern. This consideration causes reduction the uncertainty of estimated models and also increases the continuous cost of those changes. This will help government and decision makers for long-term and accurate carbon sequestration strategies for ecosystem.

Keywords: Carbon storage; Monetary valuation; InVEST model; LULC change; Markov chain model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03203-2

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