Future scenarios in the former oil capital: coastal flooding and social vulnerability in Macaé, RJ

Eduardo Macías García () and Fábio Ferreira Dias ()
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Eduardo Macías García: Université de Besançom
Fábio Ferreira Dias: Universidade Federal Fluminense

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2024, vol. 26, issue 7, No 89, 18625-18640

Abstract: Abstract The accelerated urban growth in Macaé had important consequences on socio-spatial organization, especially about housing spaces that became increasingly difficult to be accessed by the low-income population. The most devalued lands, such as mangroves and floodplains, were occupied by the low-income population. The proposal highlighted in this project focuses directly on the problem of rising sea levels and flooding in the urban space of Macaé, which is of social interest. A simulation of future scenarios with sea level rise above the current one, allowing the identification of areas flooded by marine transgression on a time scale of 100 years (for the year 2100). For this, the rate was chosen for the simulation: the greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5, as given in IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of 2014. A radiative forcing that corresponds to more than 700 ppm CO2-eq, but less than 1500 ppm, the projected increase is 1 m to more than 3 m (medium confidence) and more than 3 m (medium confidence). This assessment is based on the average confidence in the contribution from thermal expansion and low confidence in the modeled contribution modeled contribution of the ice sheets. Therefore, the climate change-induced global mean sea level rise is caused by thermal expansion of ocean water and ocean mass gain, the latter being mainly due to a decrease in land ice mass. The estimated sea-level rise used for the projection of this study is 2.15, as proposed by Grinsted et al. in 2009.

Keywords: Sea-level rise; Social vulnerability; Coastal erosion; Climate change; Urban sprawl (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03408-5

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