Farm-level autonomous adaptation to climate change and its impact on crop productivity: evidence from Pakistan

Nasir Abbas Khan (), Zaiwu Gong (), Ashfaq Ahmad Shah (), Muhammad Abid () and Uttam Khanal ()
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Nasir Abbas Khan: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Research Center of Risk Management and Emergency Decision-making, School of Management Science and Engineering
Zaiwu Gong: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Research Center of Risk Management and Emergency Decision-making, School of Management Science and Engineering
Ashfaq Ahmad Shah: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Research Center of Risk Management and Emergency Decision-making, School of Management Science and Engineering
Muhammad Abid: Serena Business Complex, Deutsche Gesellschaft Für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) Level 2
Uttam Khanal: Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2025, vol. 27, issue 12, No 1, 28447-28472

Abstract: Abstract This study explored rice farmers’ on-farm autonomous adaptation (OFAA) strategies to climate change and evaluated their impact on rice yield and total crop returns. The study used empirical data of 480 farmers collected from the major rice-growing zone of Punjab province, a region highly vulnerable to climate variability in Pakistan. We employed the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) technique to estimate the impact of OFAA strategies on crop outcomes and used a probit model to investigate the determinants of farmers’ adaptation decisions. Findings show that farmers have adopted various OFAA practices such as irrigation water management, changing cultivation dates, and fertilizer management to lessen the adverse effects of climate change. The probit model results indicated farmers’ land ownership, tube well ownership, off-farm income, credit use, and access to climate information as the major determinants of farmers’ adaptation decisions. The PSM results showed that farmers who adopted at least one OFAA practice attained 340 kg/hectare more rice yield, equivalent to US$74, compared to those who did not adopt any adaptation measure. We further found that farmers who employed multiple adaptation strategies have attained higher profits compared to those implementing a few measures. These findings imply that OFAA strategies are important in minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change and variability on crops leading to improved food production and farmers' livelihood. This study further highlights the crucial role of farmers’ education, availability of irrigation facilities, credit, and climate information for an improved farm-level adaptation.

Keywords: Climate change; Adaptation; Impact: psmatch2; Rice farmers; Pakistan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01978-w

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