Predictive sustainability assessment based on provincial 5-year development plans in China

Weiwei Li (), Danning Zhang () and Wenfeng Hui ()
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Weiwei Li: Northeastern University
Danning Zhang: Liaoning University
Wenfeng Hui: Northeastern University

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2025, vol. 27, issue 1, No 55, 1597-1617

Abstract: Abstract Sustainability is an important concern for many countries. Some plans are usually made in advance to guide the sustainable development. Sustainability assessment based on development plans can provide pre-judgment about the sustainability prospect of the evaluated objects. The paper predictively assessed the sustainability of the provincial-level regions in China according to the 14th 5-Year Development Plan. Firstly, the indicator system was constructed based on the indicators given in the development plans. Then, the assessment methods were developed by considering the historical performances and the target values given in development plans simultaneously. A development-oriented sequential relationship analysis weighting method was proposed, which is conducive to the smooth advancement of sustainability construction. The validity of the proposed methods was illustrated by comparison with the mean method. The assessment results show that the sustainability and coordination level of all the provincial-level regions will be improved in 2025. The sustainability performances are most affected by society, followed by economy and environment. It is found that “Number of high-value invention patents per 10,000 population,” “Per capita disposable income increased,” and “Reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP” are the key factors for sustainable development. Based on the findings, valuable suggestions were provided as references.

Keywords: Sustainability; Sustainability assessment; Development plan; DO-SRA weighting method; Coupling coordination degree (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03934-2

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