Strategic prospective and social networks applied in the management of permanent preservation areas of urban water resources: the case of Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil

Francisca Dalila Menezes Vasconcelos (), Francisco Suetônio Bastos Mota, Samiria Maria Oliveira Silva and Renata Locarno Frota
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Francisca Dalila Menezes Vasconcelos: Federal University of Ceará
Francisco Suetônio Bastos Mota: Federal University of Ceará
Samiria Maria Oliveira Silva: Federal University of Ceará
Renata Locarno Frota: Federal University of Ceará

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2025, vol. 27, issue 2, No 31, 3479 pages

Abstract: Abstract The advancement of urban expansion affects the water resource dynamics. Some countries define areas for the protection of water sources; for example, in Brazil, the Forest Code determines the permanent preservation areas (PPA). In order to understand the dynamics of these PPAs, we propose future scenarios using a strategic perspective, in three stages: (i) collecting information from specialists using the Delphi method, (ii) structural analysis through social networks, and (iii) construction of prospective scenarios. The analysis of social networks revealed patterns and predominant interrelations in expert opinions, which supported the construction of the three scenarios. The first scenario comprises strategic planning actions, the second follows the tendency based on past events, and the third is a hybrid of the previous two and adopts technological innovations. Strategies for the sustainable management of PPAs are presented to ensure the satisfactory performance of ecosystem services.

Keywords: Delphi method; Environmental urban planning; Prospective scenarios; Urban expansion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-04024-z

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